I continue to hear from recruiters looking for senior Flex and Flash developers. The recruiters represent clients who are looking for engineers, trainers, and architects to work on new projects as well as existing applications. So perhaps you will understand when I say that I’m still not convinced that Flash is dead.
Over the years, we have seen a steady parade of “Flash Killers” appear on the scene (Safari, SVG, Canvas, Ajax, Silverlight, HTML5, etc.) Of course, Flash did not die. So it would be easy for me to be complacent and assume that the latest Flash Killer will fail to do the job, just as all of its predecessors did. It would be easy, that is, if the latest Flash Killer were anything but Adobe Systems, Inc.
Adobe may just be able to do the job. After all, they own the technology. However, I’m not certain that’s enough. It could be that Flash is, in a sense, bigger than Adobe. After all, Flash had already been ubiquitous for some years before Adobe bought Macromedia, so we can’t exactly say that Flash is Adobe’s baby. Flash has a life of its own. It has a large and vibrant developer community. Many multi-billion-dollar organizations have invested untold millions of dollars in applications built with Flash. Many, in fact, are still building applications with Flash.
This leads me to think of another technology that has been declared dead by pundits countless times since it became ubiquitous. Sun Microsystems is gone, but Java lives on. And based on the number of new Java applications being built, it would seem that Java will continue to thrive for the foreseeable future.
So, has Adobe succeeded in delivering the death blow to Flash? Well, I don’t know, and I’m guessing that you don’t, either. Time will tell. And it will be interesting and exciting either way. There are a lot of smart, creative, and innovative people doing a lot of very cool things at any given moment. I’m looking forward to discovering what will happen.
Meanwhile, Flash will continue to have a significant presence for at least the next several years. Even if Adobe has been successful in killing Flash, it won’t die quickly: It is too ubiquitous, too popular, and too good at what it does.
Here is a humorous little footnote on the discussion: I clicked on the link in Tink’s comment below to check out Lightspark, and across the bottom of the page was a cool widget promoting the HTML5 Center (a joint venture between SourceForge and MicroSoft). The widget, of course, was running in the Flash Player!